Early detection of malaria in an endemic area: model development.

A malaria epidemic warning system was established in Thailand in 1984 using graphs displaying the median or mean incidence of malaria over the previous five years compiled from malaria surveillance data throughout the country. This reporting mechanism is not timely enough to detect the occurrence of a malaria epidemic which usually occurs at the district level over a short period of time. An alternative method for early detection of a malaria epidemic employing the Poisson model has been proposed. The development of this early malaria epidemic detection model involved 3 steps: model specification, model validation and model testing. The model was based on data collected at the Vector Borne Disease Control Unit (VBDU) Level. The results of model testing reveal the model can detect increasing numbers of cases earlier, one to two weeks prior to reaching their highest peak of transmission. The system was tested using data from Kanchanaburi Province during 2000 to 2001. Results from model testing show the model may be used for monitoring the weekly malaria situation at the district level. The Poisson model was able to detect malaria early in a highly endemic province with a satisfactory level of prediction. As the application is essential for the malaria officers in monitoring of malaria epidemics, this early detection system was introduced into malaria epidemiological work. The model may be helpful in the decision making process, planning and budget allocation for the Malaria Control Program. The software for early malaria detection is currently implemented in several endemic areas throughout Thailand.

Strengthening of national capacity in implementation of antimalarial drug quality assurance in Thailand.

Substandard and counterfeit pharmaceutical products, including antimalarial drugs, appear to be widespread internationally and affect both the developing and developed countries. The aim of the study was to investigate the quality of antimalarial drugs, ie, artesunate (ART), chloroquine (CHL), mefloquine (MEF), quinine (QUI), sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (S/P) and tetracycline (TT) obtained from the government sector and private pharmacies in 4 Thai provinces: Mae Hong Son, Kanchanaburi, Ranong, and Chanthaburi. Three hundred sixty-nine samples of 6 antimalarial drugs from 27 government hospitals, 27 malaria clinics, and 53 drugstores, were collected. Drug quality was assessed by simple disintegration test and semi-quantitative thin-layer chromatography in each province; 10% passed, 100% failed and doubtful samples were sent to be verified by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) at the Thai National Drug Analysis Laboratory, (NL). Fifteen point four percent of ART, 11.1% of CHL and 29.4% of QUI were substandard. Based on the finding, drug regulatory authorities in the country took appropriate action against violators to ensure that antimalarial drugs consumed by malaria patients are of good quality.

Chronicle of malaria epidemics in Thailand, 1980-2000.

The occurrence of malaria epidemics in Thailand was reviewed from the malaria surveillance report of the National Malaria Control Program. The literature review revealed that the four epidemic periods recorded during 1980-2000 almost always occurred in the provinces and districts located along international borders. Malaria epidemics are caused by various factors such as: extensive population movement, multi-drug resistance development, low immune status of the population, lack of knowledge and appropriate personal protection against mosquito biting, and the re-emergence of malaria transmission in low malarious areas. Such factors can lead to changes in the parasite ratio and appearance of malaria epidemics throughout the country. Evidence related to the burden of malaria epidemics was also reviewed to identify causal factors that will be helpful in future research.

Declining mefloquine sensitivity of Plasmodium falciparum along the Thai-Myanmar border.

Mefloquine sensitivity of Plasmodium falciparum along the Thai-Myanmar border, both in vitro and in vivo, following different first-line treatments for uncomplicated falciparum malaria patients in these areas during the period 1997--2003 were studied. Standard in vitro micro tests and in vivo efficacy according to World Health Organization methodologies were performed. P. falciparum isolates along the Thai-Myanmar border with in vitro sensitivity to mefloquine have had up to a ten-fold decrease in sensitivity compared to a baseline done in 1986, conducted one year after the drug was first introduced to Thailand. The reduction in the mefloquine sensitivity of P. falciparum isolates in Tak Province developed rapidly, with the highest IC50 of 1,254 nM in 1997. The IC50 declined to 1,067 and 737 nM in 1999 and 2001, respectively, but there was no statistically significant difference in the sensitivity. The sensitivity of P. falciparum isolates from Mae Hong Son, Kanchanaburi, and Ranong, where the first line treatment was mefloquine 15 mg/kg single dose, continued to decline, where in 2001 the IC50 were 1,087, 941, and 1,116 nM, respectively, in these provinces. The difference in sensitivities of P. falciparum isolates in Mae Hong Son and Ranong in 2001, compared to 1997, was statistically significant (p<0.05). Good therapeutic efficacy of the artesunate-mefloquine combination in Tak Province was observed. Adequate clinical responses (ACR) were 89.5% and 92.3% in 1997 and 2002, respectively. The efficacy of mefloquine alone in Mae Hong Son, Kanchanaburi, and Ranong has significantly dropped. ACR in 1997 and 2001 in Mae Hong Son were 87.8% and 73.2%, respectively, in Kanchanaburi were 82% and 59.6%, respectively, and in Ranong were 96% and 31.6%, respectively.

Trend of malaria incidence in highly endemic provinces along the Thai borders, 1991-2001.

The intercountry border areas of Thailand have high malaria receptivity and vulnerability that present numerous problems in the control of malaria transmission. This study focused on the 30 provinces of Thailand situated next to neighboring countries, which can be divided into 4 groups: the Thai-Myanmar border (10 provinces), the Thai-Cambodia border (6 provinces), the Thai-Lao border (10 provinces) and the Thai-Malaysia border (4 provinces). The purpose of the present study was to describe the pattern and trend of malaria incidence in the highly endemic provinces along the Thai borders for the 11 years from 1991 to 2001. Analysis of trends showed the distribution of malaria parasites to have shifted from a preponderance of Plasmodium falciparum to Plasmodium vivax along the western border with Myanmar, the northern border with Lao PDR and along the eastern border with Cambodia whereas the southern border with Malaysia the pattern changed from a preponderance of P. vivax to P. falciparum, since 1997. There was a significant difference in annual parasite incidence between borders and non-border districts, especially along the Thai-Myanmar and Thai-Cambodia borders. It is thus evident that all border districts should pay more attention to control of malaria transmission and the activities of the malaria surveillance system, and that monitoring and evaluation of the Thai Malaria Control Program needs to be performed consistently, including some areas where a few malaria cases were found as well as in malaria free areas.

Mekong malaria. II. Update of malaria, multi-drug resistance and economic development in the Mekong region of Southeast Asia.

In an expansion of the first Mekong Malaria monograph published in 1999, this second monograph updates the malaria database in the countries comprising the Mekong region of Southeast Asia. The update adds another 3 years' information to cover cumulative data from the 6 Mekong countries (Cambodia, China/Yunnan, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam) for the six-year period 1999-2001. The objective is to generate a more comprehensive regional perspective in what is a global epicenter of drug resistant falciparum malaria, in order to improve malaria control on a regional basis in the context of social and economic change. The further application of geographical information systems (GIS) to the analysis has underscored the overall asymmetry of disease patterns in the region, with increased emphasis on population mobility in disease spread. Of great importance is the continuing expansion of resistance of P. falciparum to antimalarial drugs in common use and the increasing employment of differing drug combinations as a result. The variation in drug policy among the 6 countries still represents a major obstacle to the institution of region-wide restrictions on drug misuse. An important step forward has been the establishment of 36 sentinel sites throughout the 6 countries, with the objective of standardizing the drug monitoring process; while not all sentinel sites are fully operational yet, the initial implementation has already given encouraging results in relation to disease monitoring. Some decreases in malaria mortality have been recorded. The disease patterns delineated by GIS are particularly instructive when focused on inter-country distribution, which is where more local collaborative effort can be made to rationalize resource utilization and policy development. Placing disease data in the context of socio-economic trends within and between countries serves to further identify the needs and the potential for placing emphasis on resource rationalization on a regional basis. Despite the difficulties, the 6-year time frame represented in this monograph gives confidence that the now well established collaboration is becoming a major factor in improving malaria control on a regional basis and hopefully redressing to a substantial degree the key problem of spread of drug resistance regionally and eventually globally.